Could the U.S. presidential election endanger an investment boom?

An investment boost but could politics extinguish it?

The onset of the pandemic saw the U.S. endure a period of remarkable economic turbulence, but it has since transitioned to a phase of unexpectedly strong growth. One factor underpinning this trend has been the somewhat unusual, acyclical nature of investment spending. Far from exacerbating broader swings in the economy and falling sharply in the wake of higher interest rates – the traditional response  –  investment spending has remained solid. Several factors have likely contributed to this, including a post-COVID-19 rebound, the need to strengthen supply chain security, and a broader desire to onshore, nearshore or indeed, friendshore. But we believe part of this marked improvement in U.S. investment spending is the $1.5trn of infrastructure spending set out across 2021 and 2022 by President Joe Biden’s administration.

In this paper, we attempt to quantify the scale of improvement we have seen in investment spending over recent years. We identify a material boost to investment in structures, with a large share of construction spending associated with growth in the computer and electronics sector. We then consider whether this increase is endangered by the upcoming presidential election. We consider the impact that different electoral outcomes could have on the outlook for investment spending.